AUGUST 2 — Politics shapes governments, but the economy shapes elections.
That is perhaps the most important lesson emerging from the latest political developments in Negeri Sembilan.
Much attention has been devoted to the electoral understanding between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN), whereby BN contests 25 seats while PN contests 11.
Political observers have understandably focused on the electoral arithmetic, the symbolism of former rivals cooperating, and what such an arrangement could mean for future state and national elections.
Yet beneath these political calculations lies a more fundamental reality.
The growing appeal of political unity among segments of the Malay-Muslim electorate is inseparable from widespread concerns over the rising cost of living.
Identity politics may provide the language of political mobilisation, but economic anxiety provides much of its emotional force.
Most Malaysians do not evaluate the economy by examining quarterly GDP figures, export statistics or fiscal balances.
They evaluate it every time they visit the supermarket, pay school fees, settle utility bills or refill their petrol tanks. What economists describe as inflation translates into ordinary families wondering whether their salaries can stretch until the end of the month.
For many households in Negeri Sembilan, as elsewhere in Malaysia, living costs have become the defining issue. Housing remains expensive for young families.
Childcare costs continue to increase. Food prices remain stubbornly high despite government efforts to cushion consumers through targeted subsidies.
Small businesses face higher operating costs while consumers have become increasingly careful with discretionary spending.
Economic pressure affects every community. Yet political responses often differ.
Among many Malay-Muslim voters, economic uncertainty has reinforced the appeal of greater political consolidation.
This does not necessarily mean that every voter suddenly agrees on ideology or policy. Rather, periods of economic stress often encourage voters to support political arrangements that appear more stable, more united and better positioned to defend their economic interests.
History demonstrates that when people become financially anxious, they rarely separate economics from politics.
They seek governments that promise certainty amid uncertainty. Whether such promises are ultimately fulfilled is another matter altogether.
BN and PN clearly recognise this political reality.
Their decision to avoid multi-cornered contests is not simply about electoral efficiency. It is also an attempt to reassure voters that political fragmentation should not worsen economic uncertainty.
After their cooperation in Johor, both parties have strong incentives to test whether a similar formula can succeed in Negeri Sembilan.
This explains why the alliance has attracted so much attention. It is not merely an agreement over seats. It is an experiment to determine whether political cooperation can convert economic dissatisfaction into electoral support.
Yet winning an election is far easier than governing afterwards.
No political coalition, regardless of ideology, can simply legislate away global economic pressures.
Malaysia remains deeply integrated into the international economy. Global commodity prices, supply chain disruptions, exchange rate movements and geopolitical conflicts all influence domestic inflation.
The recent volatility in energy markets, together with continuing uncertainties in global trade, reminds Malaysians that many price increases originate far beyond the country's borders.
Consequently, whoever forms the next government in Negeri Sembilan—or eventually Putrajaya—will inherit identical structural challenges.
The electorate understands this more than politicians sometimes assume.
Voters appreciate that governments cannot control every external shock. What they expect instead is competent management, transparent governance and policies that reduce the burden on ordinary families rather than transferring additional costs onto them.
This is where political credibility becomes decisive.
Pakatan Harapan cannot assume that respectable macroeconomic performance alone will satisfy voters if household finances remain under strain.
Equally, BN and PN cannot assume that electoral cooperation automatically translates into confidence in their ability to govern effectively.
The contest is therefore no longer simply about personalities or party symbols.
It is increasingly about competence.
Can the winning coalition generate higher-paying jobs?
Can it improve productivity rather than merely expand subsidies?
Can it attract quality domestic and foreign investments that create sustainable employment?
Can it strengthen education and technical training so younger Malaysians can compete in an increasingly technology-driven economy?
These questions matter far more than campaign rhetoric.
Young Malaysians, especially first-time voters, are acutely aware that their future depends not only on political stability but also on economic mobility. Many graduates delay marriage because housing remains unaffordable.
Others postpone starting families because childcare costs continue to rise. Small entrepreneurs struggle with financing costs while established businesses confront shrinking profit margins.
These everyday concerns shape voting behaviour more profoundly than many campaign strategists acknowledge.
Negeri Sembilan therefore represents more than another state election. It serves as an important indicator of how Malaysians balance identity, leadership and economic performance when casting their votes.
Politics will always matter in a democracy.
Coalitions will continue to evolve. Alliances will form and dissolve. Leaders will rise and fall.
But throughout democratic history, voters have consistently demonstrated one enduring principle.
When economic confidence weakens, politics changes.
Conversely, when governments succeed in improving living standards, political stability usually follows.
That is why the ultimate challenge for every political coalition is not merely to win elections but to earn the lasting trust of the people through competent economic stewardship.
For voters in Negeri Sembilan, the question is therefore straightforward.
Which coalition offers not only the most persuasive political narrative, but also the most credible plan to improve the daily lives of ordinary Malaysians?
The answer to that question may well determine not only the outcome in Negeri Sembilan, but also the direction of Malaysian politics in the years ahead.
* Phar Kim Beng is a professor of Asean Studies and a director at the Institute of International and Asean Studies, International Islamic University Malaysia.
** This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of NewsPulse.
